Celebrate Black History in the Triangle
Photo from Hey to your Mama, a great photo site about African’American history in North Carolina.
The Triangle area of North Carolina has a rich African-American history that deserves to be celebrated every month, but Black History month offers an opportunity to highlight the many cultural opportunities available to residents and visitors. Unfortunately I am publishing this a little late for the scheduled Black History month events, so you will have to make your own itinerary. Here are just a few places to check out to enrich your understanding of the black experience in the Triangle:
- Check out this roundup of African American history in North Carolina
- Book a Black Durham Experience tour for 20-50 participants.
- Sign up for the Diaspora Festival of Black and Independent Film at UNC’s Sonja Haynes Center.
- Visit the historical collections of the African American Cultural Complex in Raleigh.
- Take an online tour of the history of NC Mutual and Black Wall Street
Last but not least, take an online tour of Durham’s lost Hayti business district and then enjoy this video of the history of the Hayti community. Hayti was a thriving black commercial district up until the time the Durham Freeway cut a swath through homes and businesses but it’s strength lives on in Durham’s thriving black community.
Carrboro CVS is occupied, closes up parking lot
It’s not that I don’t have sympathy for the Occupy people.
I spent a good deal of my college career in sit-ins and various student protests. But in those days we were protesting a war that was killing hundreds of thousands of people.
The little town of Carrboro is famously liberal, having had one of the country’s first gay mayors. When self-described anarchists occupied the empty building on the corner of Greensboro and Weaver Streets (right across from my office) last weekend, our current mayor, my realtor colleague Mark Chilton, apparently offered them ice cream to leave (the offer was declined). This is the kind of town Carrboro is.
No more free parking
But after the occupation, the owners of the large corner property, which includes a big parking lot that has been open for the public to use, put up a big and ugly chain link fence (photo courtesy of the Carrboro Citizen), fencing off not only the abandoned building but also the parking lot. Parking in downtown Carrboro is at a premium and this was a good-sized lot with plenty of FREE overflow parking for Carr Mill Mall and Weaver Street Market. So I’m not sure what the occupiers actually accomplished.
As I wrote last May, the plans for the new CVS are actually quite attractive and fit in nicely with the brick buildings on the street. I completely understand that the neighbors of the CVS and residents of the mill neighborhood will not want the bright lights of a CVS parking lot and the all-night traffic of a 24-hour drugstore, but surely that can be dealt with in the Town’s approval process. The Town of Carrboro is quite progressive in its planning process and tends to be very careful in adhering to the Vision 2020 plan.
Who are the “corporate profiteers” in this situation?
In my opinion, the time for protest was during the two years the property stood vacant and deteriorating. The property was owned by Ruffin Slater (founder of the cooperative Weaver Street Market) in the name of “Carrboro Community LLC.” The Carrboro Commune people who led the occupation protest against “the ‘right’ of the wealthy to profit from empty buildings.” It seems to me that Mr. Slater (against whom I have no personal beef and whom I admire and respect for single-handedly facilitating the transformation Carrboro into the hip metropolis it is today is the person who more than anyone profited from this empty building. According to public records, Mr. Slater paid $625,000 for the building in 2003, and sold it to Revco (CVS parent company) in 2010 for $1,350,000.
Something positive for Carrboro
As someone who has to look at this building every day, I am eager for the day that the property will be redeveloped into an attractive building that is useful to the community and generates property taxes that will help Carrboro thrive. I do remember how exciting it can be to imagine a utopia where there is no private property and resources belong to the people, but in the real world that is a less effective strategy than might be imagined.
Raleigh/Cary makes the list of the top 10 real estate markets to watch in 2012
Inman News, one of the premier news sites for the real estate industry, has published its list of the Top Ten markets to watch in 2012, and “Raleigh/Cary” is #1.
Evidently in 2003 the Office of Management and Budget
redefined the Federal Statistical Areas and dismantled what had been for decades the Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill, MSA and split them into two separate MSAs, even though the region still functions as a single metropolitan area. This resulted in the formation of the Raleigh-Cary, NC MSA and the Durham-Chapel Hill, NC MSA.
The Research Triangle region encompasses the U.S. Census Bureau’s Combined Statistical Area (CSA) of Raleigh-Durham-Cary in the central Piedmont region of North Carolina. As of Census 2010 the population of the Raleigh-Durham-Cary CSA was 1,749,525. The Raleigh-Cary Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) as of Census 2010 was 1,130,490.
I confess I was shocked to see that the population of Raleigh and Cary, which includes the surrounding suburbs of Wake Forest, Garner, Holly Springs, Fuquay, etc., has climbed to 1,130,490. But I digress…
According to this article, third quarter 2011 sales prices in Raleigh/Cary climbed 7.3% from third quarter sales in 2010. I wasn’t able to verify this figure through the MLS but across the Triangle we did see a drop in the number of listings on the market, which meant a smaller pool of homes for buyers to choose from. When the supply equals the demand, prices don’t fall like they do in markets where an avalanche of foreclosures and desperate sellers saturate the market.
Evidently the Raleigh/Cary area is expected to grow another 35.7 percent by 2020. It’s funny to me that this article states that the economy is bolstered by jobs in the public sector, since the legislature terminated a large number of public sector jobs between 2007 and 2011, the leading cause of a rise in unemployment in the state.
But it’s good to see that our area will continue its 30+ year pattern of continued economic health, and that the housing market will continue to strengthen and create new opportunities for sellers and buyers alike.
Searching for homes in Raleigh-Cary? Use our convenient MLS search. For help with Raleigh-Cary real estate, contact Dene Lee, our Wake County expert.
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I love that our clients want to make videos about us. Here’s the latest one from Ann and Misha.
A new research park in Chatham County
Chatham residents have known for some time that the Preston Development Group was buying up land between Pittsboro and Cary south of Highway 64, but it was widely speculated that this land was being acquired for a housing development. As it turns out the developers have something much bigger in mind: a new research park that encompasses research facilities such as those found in Research Triangle Park, but also housing and probably commercial development as well.
Curiously, there have been no press releases or other news articles regarding this development; nothing except this video that mysteriously appeared one day last week. It’s about 8 minutes long, but well worth watching. It appears to me that the developers are positioning Chatham Park to be sold to a major national group but I’ll be watching carefully for further developments.
Update 2/14/12: A representative from Preston Development found this post and wrote to me that this video was intended for specific individuals rather than for the general public. They do not have a master plan, nor do they know what the project will look like. They are working on water and sewer and transportation at the moment (I suspect this has something to do with the 15-501 bypass around Pittsboro.)
Property tax values versus sales prices
North Carolina law requires that counties reassess property values for tax purposes at least every eight years, but until recently the rapidly increasing home values led to more frequent revaluations. Durham and Wake County reassessed values in 2007 (effective 2008) which was at the peak of the market, and Chatham and Orange reassessed in 2008 (effective 2009) which was after values had started to fall.
Three of the four Triangle counties have put off the reassessment project for a couple of years, noting that since properties values have fallen the counties would have to increase the tax rates in order to result in a “revenue-neutral” situation. Commissioners in Chatham County originally decided to go ahead with the revaluation, but then reversed themselves and delayed the revaluation until 2014-2015.
I thought it would be interesting to see where tax values stand today in relationship to sales prices now that we are seeing some price stabilization, so I took a random sample of homes that have sold over the past few weeks:
| Street | Area | Town | Sale price | Tax value |
| Edgestone Pl | Falconbridge | Durham | 250,000 | 242,518 |
| Hathaway Drive | Hope Valley | Durham | 385,000 | 383,766 |
| Cofield Circle | Weldon Downs | Durham | 372,900 | 388,946 |
| Branchwood Dr | Hope Creek | Durham | 395,500 | 393,524 |
| Rock Creek Rd | Coker Hills | Chapel Hill | 405,000 | 314,426 |
| Telluride Trail | Silver Creek | Chapel Hill | 749,000 | 790,258 |
| N. Circle Drive | Dogwood Acres | Chapel Hill | 185,000 | 168,236 |
| Carolina Forest Rd | Carolina Forest | Chapel Hill | 435,000 | 538,880 |
| Overlake Dr | Southern Village | Chapel Hill | 485,000 | 572,409 |
| Oval Park Pl | Meadowmont | Chapel Hill | 900,000 | 1,078,329 |
| Turner | Governors Club | CH/Chatham | 505,000 | 700,466 |
| Pine Ridge Dr | Hawfields | Chatham | 240,000 | 319,975 |
| Bynum Hill Rd | Bynum | Chatham | 105,000 | 105,772 |
| Barn Owl | Chapel Ridge | Chatham | 460,000 | 507,591 |
| Bear Tree Creek | The Preserve | Chatham | 527,500 | 571,124 |
| Rebecca Lane | Cattail Creek | Chatham | 240,000 | 273,362 |
| Beechmast | Fearrington | Chatham | 206,610 | 232,887 |
The tax assessments in 2007-2008 were taken from sales over the previous four years, and especially in Orange County in many or most cases the tax assessments were far higher than the likely sales price at the time the assessments were published.
It’s clear that property values in Durham have remained relatively flat, with homes selling very close to the tax values. In Chapel Hill the higher price ranges have fallen to a greater extent than the lower price ranges which in some cases have actually increased. Property tax assessments have never been a good measure for determining property value, which is why sites like Zillow are so inaccurate.
Chatham County has the most disparity, with every home in this random sample selling at a price significantly lower than the tax value. During the last revaluation Chatham County was experiencing a development fever in which over 6,000 housing units were approved and it was thought that the market was going to experience a boom. That turned out to be overly optimistic, and as the overall housing market began to sink Chatham sank harder than the other communities because of the over-development that had occurred over the previous few years.
The current economy has been hard on North Carolina counties, especially since the state budget shortfalls have put more pressure on the counties than ever before. Property taxes are the main vehicle through which counties pay their expenses, so they are understandably reluctant to reduce their revenue stream. But in the meantime, it would be a mistake to rely on your property tax appraisal as a guideline for determining the market value of your home.
If you have questions about your own home’s value, I’ll be glad to give you a realistic assessment of value. Just email me or fill out this form to receive this information within 24 hours!
Positive real estate news and the second “shadow inventory”
My inbox is full of positive news this morning:
- December home sales trended upwards from the previous year.
- Home builders’ optimism score is higher than it’s been in the past two years.
- Core Logic’s chief economist says housing will turn the corner in 2012, citing “a quarterly survey by the New York Federal Reserve Bank, which shows total household debt continues to decline. At the same time, consumer sentiment rebounded strongly in the latter part of 2011, posting a six-month high in December – an indication that consumers’ confidence in the strength of the economy is growing.”
- Sales of resale homes rose in December for the third month, driving the supply of homes on the market to the lowest level since 2006.
This is all great, and as I’ve been saying there does seem to be an infusion of optimism that will help to motivate prospective buyers to venture back into the housing market. Our local Triangle MLS statistics bear this out, with the lowest supply of homes at the end of the year than in the previous three years (Source: Stacey Anfindsen, Triangle MLS)
We do have a “shadow inventory” of homes though, and I don’t mean the foreclosure backlog that everyone is talking about. I mean that shadow inventory of sellers who would like to sell but have decided to wait until the market turns around.
As the reality of current home prices started to settle in over the past few years, home sellers were weren’t forced to sell for one reason or another pulled their homes off the market to wait for a better time to sell. As homes begin to sell, this shadow inventory will emerge and add to the supply of homes to offset the growing demand of prospective buyers which will keep home prices relatively stable. This is good news for home buyers and should encourage more of them to venture into the pool of homes. But home sellers will need to continue to be realistic in their expectations for the next few years.
It will be interesting to see how this balance plays out, and every neighborhood and community will be different. But the growing optimism and positive news will be a great help to the overall health of the economy in general and housing in particular.
Top Luxury Home Sales in the Triangle: Part II
Catch up on yesterday’s post here.
The second in our series of luxury homes that sold in the Triangle last year highlights a fabulous estate in Rougemont. Rougemont is a beautiful rural community (unincorporated) just north of Durham and east of Hillsborough and is the home to quite a few equestrian estates.
This gorgeous home, the Trillium Estate, has a sad history: the seller, a local business owner, built this gorgeous estate for his wife who evidently died before they were ever able to move in. Here are just a few of the photos from the MLS: there are many more on the property’s Facebook page and you can view the blueprints on the builder’s page.
The property spans over 200 acres of beautiful rolling hills and resembles a European castle. The property was sited to take advantage of the views. This part of the Triangle is rather remote from most employment centers, but is absolutely beautiful.
The pool is gorgeous, complete with fountains. Your own Versailles!
The Grand Foyer.
The kitchen and keeping areas.
The master bedroom.
The property was first listed in 2006 when it was still under construction and the owner’s wife had passed away. At the time the list price was $6,200,000 the owner’s cost at that stage of construction. As construction progressed without a sale the price continued to increase until it reached $11,900,000 at completion in early 2009.
Sadly, as we the real estate market had tanked by then, and the luxury home market (especially the market for mega homes such as this one) was hit particularly hard. The price reductions began until the property was finally reduced to $6,400,000 in May 2011. Just a few months later the new buyers purchased the home for $4,750,000, a fraction of the original cost.
Top Luxury Home Sales in the Triangle in 2011: Part I
The Triangle Business Journal recently published their list of the Top Residential Sales in 2011, but they missed two fabulous homes that sold for over $2 million: one in Chapel Hill and one in Rougemont, just north of Durham. I’m going to profile these homes today and tomorrow, beginning with this beautiful home in Conservation Ridge on Pickard Mountain, just west of Chapel Hill. This gorgeous estate was hand crafted with incredible stonework and would have made a fantastic retreat center.
This home has nine bedrooms including four in an adjacent guest house, and ten total bathrooms, with about 8900 square feet including the underground rock cave home theater and entertainment space. There is a salt water inground pool and just over 46 acres of beautiful hilltop property.
This property was originally listed in October of 2010 for $4,360,000 which according to the listing agent was several million dollars under what the property cost to build. It eventually closed in June 2011 for $2,710,000.
Tune in tomorrow for the next of the top luxury home sales in the Triangle.
Market analysis challenges in 2012
Before 2008, I was proud of my ability to nail the selling price of a home, often within a few thousand dollars. I would go into a listing appointment with my market analysis prepared and printed, and confidently tell the sellers the exact price range within which their home would sell.
Those days are long over.
Recently I met with a seller of a home in the $600,000 range, and I had a $100,000 range of value based on recent sales. This was an unusual home, on ten acres in the Chapel Hill school system which is extremely rare. Estimating market value for something like this is an art and not a science, and really depends on whether there is a buyer out there who really wants ten acres and when there are no similar properties we have to use dissimilar properties and make adjustments between the sold properties and the subject.
This becomes even more difficult when some of the most similar homes are distressed sales which likely sold lower than market value would suggest.
Today’s news on the housing market is extremely bullish. Today my inbox was full of articles like this one:
The housing sector will likely take incremental steps forward in 2012, though total originations will fall on fewer refinances, according to economists at Fannie Mae.
The second half of the year should outpace the first six months in terms of growth, though fiscal policy and political uncertainty in Washington will likely drive consumer and business activity, the mortgage giant said.
Unlike appraisers who look back to determine market value, real estate agents look forward to determine the likely selling price of a home. In a housing market where there is significant price movement, either upwards or downwards, looking backwards does not provide an accurate picture of the likely selling price.
The general mood does seem to be more positive, and that is certainly true in our office. The phones are ringing, website traffic is up. So the market analyses I do now to assess market value needs to find that sensitive balance point between optimism and reality. The way I attempt to accomplish this is by setting a realistic price expectation based on past market activity, but test the market by reaching a little higher with the listing price. Sometimes this strategy results in necessary price reductions, but I would always rather take a chance than let the past dictate the future.
For every positive article on housing you can find a negative one, and the fact is no one knows for sure what the future will bring. But it’s been my experience that the future is more likely to be bright when you look for the Sun than when you remain in the darkness.
